The final game of the NFL Divisional schedule features a matchup of two incredibly hot teams, as Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles has filled in admirably for Carson Wentz to win four straight games. Meanwhile, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints' explosive offense have guided the team to a 13-3 overall record. Kickoff from the Big Easy is at 4:40 p.m. ET on Sunday. New Orleans is an 8.5-point favorite, up a half-point from where the line opened. Bettors have been backing the Over as kickoff approaches, with the total rising all the way to 52.5 in the latest Saints vs. Eagles odds after dipping as low as 50.5. This is the second time these two teams have met this season, with the Saints dominating Philadelphia by a final score of 48-7 in Week 11. So before you make your Saints vs. Eagles picks and NFL Playoff predictions, be sure to check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it hit all four NFL spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has crunched the numbers for Eagles vs. Saints (stream live on fuboTV) from every angle. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it has also generated a strong point-spread selection that hits more than 50 percent of the time. The pick is only available at SportsLine.
For Sunday's matchup, the model knows that the 2018 season has been all about balance for the Saints offensively. After years where it felt like Brees had to throw the ball 50 times per game for New Orleans to compete, a backfield featuring Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram has given the veteran quarterback room to breathe. The Saints threw the ball 519 times during the regular season and ran it 471 times, making them one of the most balanced teams in the league.
Defenses respecting the run opened up the field and gave Brees plenty of winnable one-on-one matchups. The end result was an NFL record for completion percentage (74.4) and an impressive 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia had just the 30th-ranked pass defense this season and Brees diced up the Eagles last time out, throwing for 363 yards and four touchdowns.
But just because New Orleans can run the ball and play defense doesn't mean it will cover the Eagles vs. Saints spread in the Divisional Round.
The model also knows the Saints have played suspect pass defense all season, allowing 269 yards through the air per game, which ranks 29th in the league. And Foles enters Sunday's showdown with the highest passer rating in NFL Playoff history (105.2) among quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 attempts. He also has the highest completion percentage in postseason history (69.8) and has won four of his last five playoff starts.
Philadelphia acquired wide receiver Golden Tate late in the regular season to pair with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. Tate came through in the clutch last week, securing the game-winning touchdown on fourth down against the Bears. Ertz and Jeffery combined for over 2,000 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns this season and could be in line for another big day on Sunday against the Saints, who gave up 30 receiving touchdowns this season.
Who wins Eagles vs. Saints? And which side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.
